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Argentino Monte Maíz vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Winners Stage · Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 18:00

Argentino Monte Maíz

PPG 1.78 · HOME

UPCOMING

Olimpo Bahia Blanca

PPG 1.78 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-035.0%0-118.0%0-24.6%0-30.8%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.7%1-19.6%1-22.5%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-05.0%2-12.6%2-20.7%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-00.9%3-10.5%3-20.1%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.0% — — —

Draw 38.2% — — —

Away win 30.8% — — —

Over 2.5 26.3% — — —

Over 3.5 11.1% — — —

BTTS 31.7% — — —

Home O1.5 30.2% — — —

Away O1.5 16.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 66%

ROI -16.3%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob31.7%

D 38% / xG 0.5-0.5 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 32%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 35.0%

#2 1–0 18.7%

#3 0–1 18.0%

#4 1–1 9.6%

#5 2–0 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Argentino Monte Maíz0.5

Olimpo Bahia Blanca0.5

COMBINED 1.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 26.3% · O3.5 PROB 11.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ARGENTINO MONTE MAÍZ · PPG 1.78

OLIMPO BAHIA BLANCA · PPG 1.78

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.02, combined xG 1.05 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Argentino Monte Maíz (H) 31.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 38.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Olimpo Bahia Blanca (A) 30.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Argentino Monte Maíz face Olimpo Bahia Blanca in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Argentino Monte Maíz a 31% chance, the draw 38% and Olimpo Bahia Blanca 31%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.5 for Argentino Monte Maíz and 0.5 for Olimpo Bahia Blanca (1.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 32% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Argentino Monte Maíz are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 1.78 for Olimpo Bahia Blanca.

Argentino Monte Maíz vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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