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Douglas Haig vs Sarmiento de La Banda Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Winners Stage · Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 18:00

Douglas Haig

PPG 2.10 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sarmiento de La Banda

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.3% vs bookmaker-implied 52.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.6%0-17.2%0-22.4%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.7%1-111.3%1-23.8%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.0%2-18.8%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.8%3-14.6%3-21.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-12.5%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.3% 52.9% 1.89 +0.7%

Draw 24.4% 31.8% 3.14 -14.0%

Away win 22.2% 26.6% 3.76 -9.9%

Over 2.5 49.2% 44.8% 2.23 +9.7%

Over 3.5 28.5% 24.4% 4.10 +10.1%

BTTS 47.7% 50.8% 1.97 -6.0%

Home O1.5 45.8% 45.0% 2.22 +1.7%

Away O1.5 17.2% 26.7% 3.75 -21.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 66%

ROI -16.3%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.7%

H 53% / xG 1.6-0.7 / U2.5 49% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.7%

#2 2–0 13.0%

#3 1–1 11.3%

#4 0–0 10.6%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Douglas Haig1.6

Sarmiento de La Banda0.7

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.2% · O3.5 PROB 28.5%

Form & verdict PPG

DOUGLAS HAIG · PPG 2.10

SARMIENTO DE LA BANDA · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.89 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Douglas Haig (H) 53.3%

ODDS 1.89 · IMPLIED 52.9% EV +0.7%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.14 · IMPLIED 31.8% EV -14.0%

Sarmiento de La Banda (A) 22.2%

ODDS 3.76 · IMPLIED 26.6% EV -9.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Douglas Haig face Sarmiento de La Banda in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Douglas Haig a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Sarmiento de La Banda 22%, so Douglas Haig are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Douglas Haig and 0.7 for Sarmiento de La Banda (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Douglas Haig are averaging 2.10 points per game versus 1.00 for Sarmiento de La Banda. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +10.1%.

Douglas Haig vs Sarmiento de La Banda Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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