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Gimnasia Concepción vs Defensores de Vilelas Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Losers Stage · Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 18:30

Gimnasia Concepción

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Defensores de Vilelas

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-15.7%0-22.6%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.8%1-110.6%1-24.8%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.9%2-19.8%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.7%3-16.1%3-22.7%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-14.3%4+-21.9%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.4% 57.1% 1.75 -3.0%

Draw 22.5% 32.3% 3.10 -18.1%

Away win 22.1% 22.2% 4.50 -0.3%

Over 2.5 53.7% 41.2% 2.43 +30.5%

Over 3.5 31.8% 22.2% 4.50 +43.1%

BTTS 53.1% 45.5% 2.20 +16.8%

Home O1.5 54.6% 47.6% 2.10 +14.7%

Away O1.5 23.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 66%

ROI -16.3%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.1%

H 55% / xG 1.9-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–0 10.9%

#3 1–0 11.8%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gimnasia Concepción1.9

Defensores de Vilelas0.9

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

GIMNASIA CONCEPCIÓN · PPG 1.50

DEFENSORES DE VILELAS · PPG 0.78

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.95 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Gimnasia Concepción (H) 55.4%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -3.0%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -18.1%

Defensores de Vilelas (A) 22.1%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -0.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gimnasia Concepción face Defensores de Vilelas in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gimnasia Concepción a 55% chance, the draw 23% and Defensores de Vilelas 22%, so Gimnasia Concepción are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Gimnasia Concepción and 0.9 for Defensores de Vilelas (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gimnasia Concepción are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.78 for Defensores de Vilelas. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +43.1%.

Gimnasia Concepción vs Defensores de Vilelas Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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