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Gimnasia Chivilcoy vs San Martin Formosa Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Winners Stage · Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 18:00

Gimnasia Chivilcoy

PPG 2.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

San Martin Formosa

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.8%0-18.3%0-22.9%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.9%1-111.9%1-24.2%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.1%2-18.5%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.8%3-14.1%3-21.4%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-12.0%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.3% — — —

Draw 26.1% — — —

Away win 25.6% — — —

Over 2.5 45.9% — — —

Over 3.5 28.0% — — —

BTTS 47.7% — — —

Home O1.5 45.1% — — —

Away O1.5 17.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 66%

ROI -16.3%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.7%

H 48% / xG 1.4-0.7 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.9%

#2 1–1 11.9%

#3 0–0 11.8%

#4 2–0 12.1%

#5 2–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gimnasia Chivilcoy1.4

San Martin Formosa0.7

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.0%

Form & verdict PPG

GIMNASIA CHIVILCOY · PPG 2.20

SAN MARTIN FORMOSA · PPG 1.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.73 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Gimnasia Chivilcoy (H) 48.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

San Martin Formosa (A) 25.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Gimnasia Chivilcoy face San Martin Formosa in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gimnasia Chivilcoy a 48% chance, the draw 26% and San Martin Formosa 26%, so Gimnasia Chivilcoy are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Gimnasia Chivilcoy and 0.7 for San Martin Formosa (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gimnasia Chivilcoy are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 1.44 for San Martin Formosa.

Gimnasia Chivilcoy vs San Martin Formosa Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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