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Sol de Mayo vs Germinal de Rawson Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Losers Stage · Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 18:00

Sol de Mayo

PPG 1.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

Germinal de Rawson

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.3% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.7%0-18.1%0-22.8%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.0%1-111.8%1-24.1%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.4%2-18.5%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.0%3-14.1%3-21.4%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-12.1%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.3% 61.7% 1.62 -13.7%

Draw 24.5% 29.0% 3.45 -9.3%

Away win 22.2% 21.1% 4.75 +3.3%

Over 2.5 49.9% 52.4% 1.91 -4.7%

Over 3.5 28.7% 30.3% 3.30 -3.2%

BTTS 49.2% 53.5% 1.87 -8.0%

Home O1.5 45.1% 53.8% 1.86 -16.1%

Away O1.5 17.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 66%

ROI -16.3%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.2%

H 53% / xG 1.5-0.7 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.0%

#2 1–1 11.8%

#3 0–0 11.7%

#4 2–0 12.4%

#5 2–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sol de Mayo1.5

Germinal de Rawson0.7

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SOL DE MAYO · PPG 1.40

GERMINAL DE RAWSON · PPG 0.44

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.76 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sol de Mayo (H) 53.3%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -13.7%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -9.3%

Germinal de Rawson (A) 22.2%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +3.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sol de Mayo face Germinal de Rawson in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sol de Mayo a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Germinal de Rawson 22%, so Sol de Mayo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Sol de Mayo and 0.7 for Germinal de Rawson (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sol de Mayo are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.44 for Germinal de Rawson.

Sol de Mayo vs Germinal de Rawson Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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