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Sportivo Las Parejas vs Independiente De Chivilcoy Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Losers Stage · Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 18:00

Sportivo Las Parejas

PPG 1.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

Independiente De Chivilcoy

PPG 0.70 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-022.3%0-19.7%0-22.1%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-023.7%1-110.4%1-22.3%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-012.6%2-15.5%2-21.2%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-04.5%3-11.9%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-10.7%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.5% 70.4% 1.42 -34.0%

Draw 32.0% 26.0% 3.85 +23.2%

Away win 21.5% 15.4% 6.50 +23.8%

Over 2.5 34.2% 52.1% 1.92 -34.3%

Over 3.5 14.5% 30.3% 3.30 -31.3%

BTTS 44.6% 47.6% 2.10 -6.3%

Home O1.5 30.2% 61.7% 1.62 -51.1%

Away O1.5 11.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 66%

ROI -16.3%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob44.6%

H 46% / xG 1.1-0.4 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 22.3%

#2 1–0 23.7%

#3 2–0 12.6%

#4 1–1 10.4%

#5 0–1 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sportivo Las Parejas1.1

Independiente De Chivilcoy0.4

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.2% · O3.5 PROB 14.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTIVO LAS PAREJAS · PPG 1.80

INDEPENDIENTE DE CHIVILCOY · PPG 0.70

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.63 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sportivo Las Parejas (H) 46.5%

ODDS 1.42 · IMPLIED 70.4% EV -34.0%

Draw 32.0%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +23.2%

Independiente De Chivilcoy (A) 21.5%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +23.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sportivo Las Parejas face Independiente De Chivilcoy in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sportivo Las Parejas a 47% chance, the draw 32% and Independiente De Chivilcoy 22%, so Sportivo Las Parejas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Sportivo Las Parejas and 0.4 for Independiente De Chivilcoy (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sportivo Las Parejas are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 0.70 for Independiente De Chivilcoy.

Sportivo Las Parejas vs Independiente De Chivilcoy Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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