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Villa Mitre vs Alvarado Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Winners Stage · Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 18:30

Villa Mitre

PPG 1.89 · HOME

UPCOMING

Alvarado

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-031.2%0-114.7%0-23.5%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-021.6%1-110.2%1-22.4%1-30.4%1-4+0.0%2 2-07.5%2-13.5%2-20.8%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-01.7%3-10.8%3-20.2%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.2%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.9% 47.2% 2.12 -15.4%

Draw 36.7% 37.0% 2.70 -0.9%

Away win 23.4% 27.4% 3.65 -8.8%

Over 2.5 28.7% 32.8% 3.05 -7.5%

Over 3.5 12.3% 16.7% 6.00 -15.7%

BTTS 31.7% 41.2% 2.43 -23.0%

Home O1.5 30.2% — — —

Away O1.5 16.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 66%

ROI -16.3%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob31.7%

H 40% / xG 0.7-0.5 / U2.5 29% / NoBTTS 32%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 31.2%

#2 1–0 21.6%

#3 0–1 14.7%

#4 1–1 10.2%

#5 2–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Villa Mitre0.7

Alvarado0.5

COMBINED 1.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 28.7% · O3.5 PROB 12.3%

Form & verdict PPG

VILLA MITRE · PPG 1.89

ALVARADO · PPG 1.11

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.22, combined xG 1.17 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Villa Mitre (H) 39.9%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV -15.4%

Draw 36.7%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -0.9%

Alvarado (A) 23.4%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -8.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Villa Mitre face Alvarado in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Villa Mitre a 40% chance, the draw 37% and Alvarado 23%, so Villa Mitre are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Villa Mitre and 0.5 for Alvarado (1.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 29% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 32% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Villa Mitre are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 1.11 for Alvarado.

Villa Mitre vs Alvarado Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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