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Costa Brava vs Guillermo Brown Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Losers Stage · Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 14:00

Costa Brava

PPG 1.56 · HOME

UPCOMING

Guillermo Brown

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +1.01 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.4%0-16.7%0-21.7%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-020.2%1-110.1%1-22.5%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.3%2-17.6%2-21.9%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-07.7%3-13.8%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-12.0%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.3% — — —

Draw 24.7% — — —

Away win 18.9% — — —

Over 2.5 42.7% — — —

Over 3.5 21.1% — — —

BTTS 44.6% — — —

Home O1.5 45.1% — — —

Away O1.5 16.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 66%

ROI -16.3%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob44.6%

H 56% / xG 1.5-0.5 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 20.2%

#2 2–0 15.3%

#3 0–0 13.4%

#4 1–1 10.1%

#5 3–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Costa Brava1.5

Guillermo Brown0.5

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 21.1%

Form & verdict PPG

COSTA BRAVA · PPG 1.56

GUILLERMO BROWN · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.01 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Costa Brava (H) 56.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Guillermo Brown (A) 18.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Costa Brava face Guillermo Brown in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Costa Brava a 56% chance, the draw 25% and Guillermo Brown 19%, so Costa Brava are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Costa Brava and 0.5 for Guillermo Brown (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Costa Brava are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 0.60 for Guillermo Brown.

Costa Brava vs Guillermo Brown Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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