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Juventud Unida Univ. vs Circulo Deportivo Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Losers Stage · Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 18:00

Juventud Unida Univ.

PPG 1.11 · HOME

UPCOMING

Circulo Deportivo

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-030.0%0-18.9%0-21.3%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-027.2%1-18.1%1-21.2%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-012.4%2-13.7%2-20.5%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-03.7%3-11.1%3-20.2%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-10.3%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.1% 62.1% 1.61 -22.6%

Draw 36.5% 30.8% 3.25 +18.6%

Away win 15.5% 18.5% 5.40 -9.8%

Over 2.5 26.3% 43.5% 2.30 -23.7%

Over 3.5 11.2% 22.2% 4.50 -29.8%

BTTS 31.7% 44.8% 2.23 -29.3%

Home O1.5 30.2% 51.8% 1.93 -41.7%

Away O1.5 11.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 66%

ROI -16.3%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.3 BTTS prob31.7%

H 48% / xG 0.9-0.3 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 32%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 30.0%

#2 1–0 27.2%

#3 2–0 12.4%

#4 1–1 8.1%

#5 0–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Juventud Unida Univ.0.9

Circulo Deportivo0.3

COMBINED 1.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 26.3% · O3.5 PROB 11.2%

Form & verdict PPG

JUVENTUD UNIDA UNIV. · PPG 1.11

CIRCULO DEPORTIVO · PPG 0.40

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.61 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Juventud Unida Univ. (H) 48.1%

ODDS 1.61 · IMPLIED 62.1% EV -22.6%

Draw 36.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +18.6%

Circulo Deportivo (A) 15.5%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV -9.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Juventud Unida Univ. face Circulo Deportivo in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Juventud Unida Univ. a 48% chance, the draw 37% and Circulo Deportivo 16%, so Juventud Unida Univ. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Juventud Unida Univ. and 0.3 for Circulo Deportivo (1.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 32% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Juventud Unida Univ. are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 0.40 for Circulo Deportivo.

Juventud Unida Univ. vs Circulo Deportivo Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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