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Slovan Liberec vs Slavia Praha Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 18:00

Slovan Liberec

PPG 1.27 · HOME

UPCOMING

Slavia Praha

PPG 2.05 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-112.8%0-29.6%0-34.8%0-4+2.5%1 1-08.2%1-112.3%1-29.2%1-34.6%1-4+2.4%2 2-03.9%2-15.9%2-24.4%2-32.2%2-4+1.2%3 3-01.3%3-11.9%3-21.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.6%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.3% 22.5% 4.45 +12.9%

Draw 26.9% 27.8% 3.60 -1.9%

Away win 45.8% 58.8% 1.70 -22.1%

Over 2.5 49.9% 55.6% 1.80 -10.2%

Over 3.5 28.7% 33.3% 3.00 -8.3%

BTTS 53.1% 58.8% 1.70 -9.7%

Home O1.5 30.2% 29.4% 3.40 +2.7%

Away O1.5 47.3% 56.5% 1.77 -16.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 35%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 17.6%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 23%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob53.1%

A 46% / xG 1.0-1.5 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 0–1 12.8%

#3 0–0 8.5%

#4 0–2 9.6%

#5 1–2 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Slovan Liberec1.0

Slavia Praha1.5

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SLOVAN LIBEREC · PPG 1.27

SLAVIA PRAHA · PPG 2.05

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.54 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Slovan Liberec (H) 27.3%

ODDS 4.45 · IMPLIED 22.5% EV +12.9%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -1.9%

Slavia Praha (A) 45.8%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -22.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Slovan Liberec face Slavia Praha in Czech-Republic - Czech Liga on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Slovan Liberec a 27% chance, the draw 27% and Slavia Praha 46%, so Slavia Praha are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Slovan Liberec and 1.5 for Slavia Praha (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Slovan Liberec are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 2.05 for Slavia Praha. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +13.1%.

Slovan Liberec vs Slavia Praha Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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