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FK Jablonec vs Slovácko Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 15:00

FK Jablonec

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Slovácko

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 63.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-13.3%0-21.3%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.9%1-17.9%1-23.1%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.8%2-19.4%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.4%3-17.5%3-23.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-09.9%4+-17.8%4+-23.1%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.6% 61.0% 1.64 +4.3%

Draw 21.2% 27.0% 3.70 -12.9%

Away win 15.2% 20.8% 4.80 -16.2%

Over 2.5 60.4% 55.6% 1.80 +8.7%

Over 3.5 36.8% 33.3% 3.00 +10.4%

BTTS 50.7% 57.1% 1.75 -11.3%

Home O1.5 62.4% 57.8% 1.73 +8.0%

Away O1.5 20.1% 28.2% 3.55 -17.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 35%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 17.6%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob50.7%

H 64% / xG 2.4-0.8 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.8%

#2 3–0 9.4%

#3 2–1 9.4%

#4 1–1 7.9%

#5 1–0✓ 9.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FK Jablonec2.4

Slovácko0.8

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.4% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FK JABLONEC · PPG 2.00

SLOVÁCKO · PPG 0.78

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.59 for Home, form 2.00 vs 0.78 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

FK Jablonec (H) 63.6%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV +4.3%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -12.9%

Slovácko (A) 15.2%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -16.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

FK Jablonec face Slovácko in Czech-Republic - Czech Liga on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FK Jablonec a 64% chance, the draw 21% and Slovácko 15%, so FK Jablonec are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for FK Jablonec and 0.8 for Slovácko (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FK Jablonec are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.78 for Slovácko. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +20.1%. This match finished 1-0.

FK Jablonec vs Slovácko Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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