Today / Czech-Republic - Czech Liga / Mlada Boleslav vs Sparta Praha

Mlada Boleslav vs Sparta Praha Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 18:00

Mlada Boleslav

PPG 1.21 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Sparta Praha

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.6% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-14.1%0-23.5%0-32.1%0-4+1.3%1 1-04.7%1-18.2%1-27.1%1-34.2%1-4+2.7%2 2-04.7%2-18.2%2-27.2%2-34.2%2-4+2.7%3 3-03.2%3-15.5%3-24.8%3-32.8%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-14.4%4+-23.9%4+-32.3%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.3% 25.3% 3.95 +90.8%

Draw 23.1% 27.0% 3.70 -8.7%

Away win 28.6% 56.8% 1.76 -29.8%

Over 2.5 63.6% 64.5% 1.55 -1.4%

Over 3.5 42.9% 42.6% 2.35 +0.8%

BTTS 62.7% 66.7% 1.50 -5.9%

Home O1.5 55.4% 38.5% 2.60 +44.0%

Away O1.5 48.2% 61.7% 1.62 -21.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 35%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 17.6%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob62.7%

H 48% / xG 2.0-1.7 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.2%

#2 2–1 8.2%

#3 2–2 7.2%

#4 1–2 7.1%

#5 3–1 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mlada Boleslav2.0

Sparta Praha1.7

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 42.9%

Form & verdict PPG

MLADA BOLESLAV · PPG 1.21

SPARTA PRAHA · PPG 1.31

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.27 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Mlada Boleslav (H) 48.3%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +90.8%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -8.7%

Sparta Praha (A) 28.6%

ODDS 1.76 · IMPLIED 56.8% EV -29.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mlada Boleslav face Sparta Praha in Czech-Republic - Czech Liga on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mlada Boleslav a 48% chance, the draw 23% and Sparta Praha 29%, so Mlada Boleslav are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Mlada Boleslav and 1.7 for Sparta Praha (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.21 points per game versus 1.31 for Sparta Praha. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +114.5%. This match finished 2-0.

Mlada Boleslav vs Sparta Praha Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Czech-Republic - Czech Liga Predictions