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Pardubice vs Mlada Boleslav Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 15:00

Pardubice

PPG 1.11 · HOME

UPCOMING

Mlada Boleslav

PPG 1.52 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap -0.52 - moderate Away edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-18.7%0-27.7%0-34.5%0-4+3.0%1 1-06.1%1-110.8%1-29.6%1-35.6%1-4+3.7%2 2-03.8%2-16.7%2-26.0%2-33.5%2-4+2.3%3 3-01.6%3-12.8%3-22.5%3-31.5%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.1%4+-21.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.9% — — —

Draw 24.4% — — —

Away win 44.8% — — —

Over 2.5 59.5% — — —

Over 3.5 36.5% — — —

BTTS 60.3% — — —

Home O1.5 35.0% — — —

Away O1.5 47.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 35%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 17.6%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob60.3%

A 45% / xG 1.2-1.8 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 1–2 9.6%

#3 0–2 7.7%

#4 0–1 8.7%

#5 2–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pardubice1.2

Mlada Boleslav1.8

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

PARDUBICE · PPG 1.11

MLADA BOLESLAV · PPG 1.52

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.52 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Pardubice (H) 30.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Mlada Boleslav (A) 44.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Pardubice face Mlada Boleslav in Czech-Republic - Czech Liga on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pardubice a 31% chance, the draw 24% and Mlada Boleslav 45%, so Mlada Boleslav are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Pardubice and 1.8 for Mlada Boleslav (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pardubice are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 1.52 for Mlada Boleslav.

Pardubice vs Mlada Boleslav Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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