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Sparta Praha vs Teplice Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 15:00

Sparta Praha

PPG 2.23 · HOME

UPCOMING

Teplice

PPG 1.58 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 59.5% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-15.7%0-24.0%0-31.9%0-4+0.9%1 1-07.2%1-110.2%1-27.2%1-33.4%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.5%2-19.2%2-26.5%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-03.9%3-15.5%3-23.9%3-31.8%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-13.7%4+-22.6%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.6% 73.5% 1.36 -35.3%

Draw 24.3% 23.8% 4.20 +1.2%

Away win 28.1% 11.4% 8.80 +88.4%

Over 2.5 59.5% 60.6% 1.65 -1.8%

Over 3.5 36.5% 39.2% 2.55 -6.9%

BTTS 54.5% 54.6% 1.83 -0.3%

Home O1.5 49.2% 69.4% 1.44 -29.1%

Away O1.5 42.6% 21.1% 4.75 +102.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 35%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 17.6%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.5%

H 48% / xG 1.8-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–2 7.2%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 2–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sparta Praha1.8

Teplice1.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SPARTA PRAHA · PPG 2.23

TEPLICE · PPG 1.58

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.38 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sparta Praha (H) 47.6%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -35.3%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +1.2%

Teplice (A) 28.1%

ODDS 8.80 · IMPLIED 11.4% EV +88.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sparta Praha face Teplice in Czech-Republic - Czech Liga on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sparta Praha a 48% chance, the draw 24% and Teplice 28%, so Sparta Praha are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Sparta Praha and 1.4 for Teplice (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sparta Praha are averaging 2.23 points per game versus 1.58 for Teplice. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +111.6%.

Sparta Praha vs Teplice Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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