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Slavia Praha vs Pardubice Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 13:00

Slavia Praha

PPG 2.44 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Pardubice

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 78.3% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-11.1%0-20.4%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-05.4%1-13.9%1-21.4%1-30.3%1-4+0.1%2 2-09.3%2-16.7%2-22.4%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.6%3-17.6%3-22.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-021.7%4+-115.7%4+-25.6%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 75.0% 82.6% 1.21 -9.3%

Draw 16.6% 16.9% 5.90 -1.2%

Away win 8.4% 9.5% 10.50 -7.1%

Over 2.5 65.9% 67.6% 1.48 -2.5%

Over 3.5 44.0% 45.5% 2.20 -3.2%

BTTS 49.6% 51.3% 1.95 -3.3%

Home O1.5 78.3% 78.1% 1.28 +0.2%

Away O1.5 17.4% 19.0% 5.25 -5.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 35%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 17.6%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)3.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.6%

H 75% / xG 3.4-0.7 / O2.5 66% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 10.6%

#2 2–0 9.3%

#3 4–0 9.1%

#4 3–1 7.6%

#5 2–1✓ 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Slavia Praha3.4

Pardubice0.7

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.9% · O3.5 PROB 44.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SLAVIA PRAHA · PPG 2.44

PARDUBICE · PPG 1.12

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.70 for Home, form 2.44 vs 1.12 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Slavia Praha (H) 75.0%

ODDS 1.21 · IMPLIED 82.6% EV -9.3%

Draw 16.6%

ODDS 5.90 · IMPLIED 16.9% EV -1.2%

Pardubice (A) 8.4%

ODDS 10.50 · IMPLIED 9.5% EV -7.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Slavia Praha face Pardubice in Czech-Republic - Czech Liga on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Slavia Praha a 75% chance, the draw 17% and Pardubice 8%, so Slavia Praha are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.4 for Slavia Praha and 0.7 for Pardubice (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Slavia Praha are averaging 2.44 points per game versus 1.12 for Pardubice. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +10.4%. This match finished 2-1.

Slavia Praha vs Pardubice Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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