Today / Czech-Republic - Czech Liga / Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava

Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 15:00

Hradec Králové

PPG 2.12 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Baník Ostrava

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.0% vs bookmaker-implied 45.5% — a clear edge.

+14.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.8%0-18.0%0-22.7%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.2%1-111.7%1-24.0%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.5%2-18.5%2-22.9%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.1%3-14.1%3-21.4%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-12.1%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.0% 45.5% 2.20 +14.4%

Draw 27.2% 30.8% 3.25 -7.0%

Away win 20.8% 32.8% 3.05 -21.9%

Over 2.5 43.5% 51.8% 1.93 -16.0%

Over 3.5 22.0% 29.9% 3.35 -15.8%

BTTS 45.5% 58.8% 1.70 -22.7%

Home O1.5 45.4% 46.5% 2.15 -2.4%

Away O1.5 17.4% 36.4% 2.75 -31.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 35%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 17.6%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob45.5%

H 52% / xG 1.5-0.7 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.2%

#2 0–0 11.8%

#3 1–1 11.7%

#4 2–0 12.5%

#5 2–1✓ 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hradec Králové1.5

Baník Ostrava0.7

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.5% · O3.5 PROB 22.0%

Form & verdict PPG

HRADEC KRÁLOVÉ · PPG 2.12

BANÍK OSTRAVA · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.78 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Hradec Králové (H) 52.0%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +14.4%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -7.0%

Baník Ostrava (A) 20.8%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -21.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hradec Králové face Baník Ostrava in Czech-Republic - Czech Liga on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hradec Králové a 52% chance, the draw 27% and Baník Ostrava 21%, so Hradec Králové are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Hradec Králové and 0.7 for Baník Ostrava (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hradec Králové are averaging 2.12 points per game versus 1.50 for Baník Ostrava. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +2.4%. This match finished 2-1.

Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Czech-Republic - Czech Liga Predictions