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Teplice vs Plzen Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 15:00

Teplice

PPG 1.74 · HOME

5 – 5

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Plzen

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.4% vs bookmaker-implied 26.3% — a clear edge.

+99.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-16.9%0-23.3%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.1%1-111.6%1-25.5%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.1%2-19.6%2-24.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.6%3-15.4%3-22.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-13.3%4+-21.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.4% 26.3% 3.80 +99.1%

Draw 25.6% 28.2% 3.55 -5.5%

Away win 22.0% 54.6% 1.83 -35.8%

Over 2.5 50.3% 52.6% 1.90 -4.4%

Over 3.5 28.8% 30.3% 3.30 -3.0%

BTTS 51.9% 57.1% 1.75 -9.2%

Home O1.5 48.7% 31.3% 3.20 +55.8%

Away O1.5 27.7% 52.4% 1.91 -28.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 35%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 17.6%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-5

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.9%

H 52% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–0 12.1%

#3 2–0 10.1%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Teplice1.7

Plzen1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

TEPLICE · PPG 1.74

PLZEN · PPG 1.60

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.71 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Teplice (H) 52.4%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +99.1%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -5.5%

Plzen (A) 22.0%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -35.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Teplice face Plzen in Czech-Republic - Czech Liga on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Teplice a 52% chance, the draw 26% and Plzen 22%, so Teplice are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Teplice and 1.0 for Plzen (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Teplice are averaging 1.74 points per game versus 1.60 for Plzen. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +88.8%. This match finished 5-5.

Teplice vs Plzen Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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