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Villa San Carlos vs Defensores Unidos Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Matchday 30 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 18:00

Villa San Carlos

PPG 0.86 · HOME

UPCOMING

Defensores Unidos

PPG 0.29 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.2%0-110.8%0-24.4%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.9%1-113.0%1-25.3%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.6%2-17.9%2-23.2%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.8%3-13.2%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.2%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.1% 46.5% 2.15 -3.0%

Draw 29.0% 32.3% 3.10 -6.1%

Away win 25.8% 31.3% 3.20 -10.5%

Over 2.5 42.7% 45.5% 2.20 -6.1%

Over 3.5 21.1% 23.8% 4.20 -6.8%

BTTS 47.7% 54.1% 1.85 -11.8%

Home O1.5 31.7% 42.6% 2.35 -25.5%

Away O1.5 21.1% 32.3% 3.10 -20.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 129 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 65%

ROI 26.0%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.7%

H 45% / xG 1.2-0.8 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.2%

#2 1–1 13.0%

#3 1–0 15.9%

#4 2–0 9.6%

#5 0–1 10.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Villa San Carlos1.2

Defensores Unidos0.8

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 21.1%

Form & verdict PPG

VILLA SAN CARLOS · PPG 0.86

DEFENSORES UNIDOS · PPG 0.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.39, combined xG 2.02 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Villa San Carlos (H) 45.1%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -3.0%

Draw 29.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -6.1%

Defensores Unidos (A) 25.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -10.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Villa San Carlos face Defensores Unidos in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Villa San Carlos a 45% chance, the draw 29% and Defensores Unidos 26%, so Villa San Carlos are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Villa San Carlos and 0.8 for Defensores Unidos (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Villa San Carlos are averaging 0.86 points per game versus 0.29 for Defensores Unidos. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +5.5%.

Villa San Carlos vs Defensores Unidos Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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