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Spartak Pleven vs Marek Prediction— Bulgaria - Second League

Regular Season - 2 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 17:00

Spartak Pleven

PPG 1.46 · HOME

UPCOMING

Marek

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.2%0-110.9%0-23.9%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.7%1-112.7%1-24.6%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.3%2-17.4%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.0%3-12.9%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.1%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.6% 45.5% 2.20 +2.5%

Draw 30.0% 34.7% 2.88 -13.6%

Away win 23.4% 31.3% 3.20 -15.1%

Over 2.5 37.3% 42.0% 2.38 -11.2%

Over 3.5 19.0% 23.3% 4.30 -11.0%

BTTS 48.5% 50.3% 1.99 -3.5%

Home O1.5 32.6% 39.4% 2.54 -17.2%

Away O1.5 20.3% 29.9% 3.34 -19.3%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.5%

H 47% / xG 1.2-0.7 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.2%

#2 1–0 17.7%

#3 1–1 12.7%

#4 2–0 10.3%

#5 0–1 10.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Spartak Pleven1.2

Marek0.7

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.3% · O3.5 PROB 19.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SPARTAK PLEVEN · PPG 1.46

MAREK · PPG 1.60

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.44, combined xG 1.89 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Spartak Pleven (H) 46.6%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +2.5%

Draw 30.0%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -13.6%

Marek (A) 23.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -15.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Spartak Pleven face Marek in Bulgaria - Second League on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Spartak Pleven a 47% chance, the draw 30% and Marek 23%, so Spartak Pleven are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Spartak Pleven and 0.7 for Marek (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Spartak Pleven are averaging 1.46 points per game versus 1.60 for Marek. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +4.7%.