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San Lorenzo vs Velez Sarsfield Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Apertura - 15 ·Monday, April 20, 2026, 22:30

San Lorenzo

PPG 1.67 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Velez Sarsfield

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.0%0-113.0%0-25.0%0-31.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-017.2%1-113.1%1-25.0%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-08.6%2-16.6%2-22.5%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.9%3-12.2%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.7%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.3% 31.7% 3.15 +26.9%

Draw 32.9% 36.0% 2.78 -8.5%

Away win 26.9% 39.1% 2.56 -31.1%

Over 2.5 26.2% 33.3% 3.00 -21.4%

Over 3.5 10.4% 16.0% 6.25 -35.0%

BTTS 33.9% 44.4% 2.25 -23.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 28%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 69%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -39.3%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob33.9%

H 40% / xG 1.0-0.8 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 34%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.2%

#2 0–0✓ 17.0%

#3 1–1 13.1%

#4 0–1 13.0%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Lorenzo1.0

Velez Sarsfield0.8

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 26.2% · O3.5 PROB 10.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN LORENZO · PPG 1.67

VELEZ SARSFIELD · PPG 1.71

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.67), Away GOOD (1.71)

Win probability 1X2

San Lorenzo (H) 40.3%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV +26.9%

Draw 32.9%

ODDS 2.78 · IMPLIED 36.0% EV -8.5%

Velez Sarsfield (A) 26.9%

ODDS 2.56 · IMPLIED 39.1% EV -31.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

San Lorenzo face Velez Sarsfield in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Monday, April 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Lorenzo a 40% chance, the draw 33% and Velez Sarsfield 27%, so San Lorenzo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for San Lorenzo and 0.8 for Velez Sarsfield (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 34% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Lorenzo are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.71 for Velez Sarsfield. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +26.9%. This match finished 0-0.

San Lorenzo vs Velez Sarsfield Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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