Today / Estonia - Meistriliiga / Flora Tallinn vs Kuressaare

Flora Tallinn vs Kuressaare Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Matchday 23 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 16:00

Flora Tallinn

PPG 1.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

Kuressaare

PPG 0.64 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 64.6% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-13.3%0-21.2%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.1%1-17.8%1-22.8%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.0%2-19.2%2-23.2%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.2%3-17.2%3-22.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-010.3%4+-17.3%4+-22.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.6% 74.1% 1.35 -12.8%

Draw 20.6% 21.7% 4.60 -3.1%

Away win 14.8% 14.3% 7.00 +2.2%

Over 2.5 59.5% 66.7% 1.50 -10.8%

Over 3.5 36.5% 47.6% 2.10 -23.4%

BTTS 53.1% 61.7% 1.62 -14.0%

Home O1.5 63.0% 75.2% 1.33 -16.2%

Away O1.5 17.2% 25.0% 4.00 -18.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 9.7%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob53.1%

H 65% / xG 2.3-0.7 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.0%

#2 3–0 10.2%

#3 1–0 11.1%

#4 2–1 9.2%

#5 1–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Flora Tallinn2.3

Kuressaare0.7

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

FLORA TALLINN · PPG 1.80

KURESSAARE · PPG 0.64

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.64 for Home, form 1.80 vs 0.64 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Flora Tallinn (H) 64.6%

ODDS 1.35 · IMPLIED 74.1% EV -12.8%

Draw 20.6%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -3.1%

Kuressaare (A) 14.8%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +2.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Flora Tallinn face Kuressaare in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Flora Tallinn a 65% chance, the draw 21% and Kuressaare 15%, so Flora Tallinn are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Flora Tallinn and 0.7 for Kuressaare (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Flora Tallinn are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 0.64 for Kuressaare.

Flora Tallinn vs Kuressaare Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Estonia - Meistriliiga Predictions