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Nõmme United vs Tammeka Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Matchday 23 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 16:00

Nõmme United

PPG 1.09 · HOME

UPCOMING

Tammeka

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.6% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-12.9%0-22.3%0-31.2%0-4+0.7%1 1-04.4%1-17.0%1-25.6%1-33.0%1-4+1.7%2 2-05.3%2-18.5%2-26.7%2-33.6%2-4+2.0%3 3-04.3%3-16.8%3-25.4%3-32.9%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-17.2%4+-25.7%4+-33.0%4+-4+1.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.5% 45.5% 2.20 +15.5%

Draw 21.5% 27.0% 3.70 -12.3%

Away win 26.0% 39.2% 2.55 -20.2%

Over 2.5 67.6% 71.4% 1.40 -5.4%

Over 3.5 47.2% 52.4% 1.91 -9.8%

BTTS 65.4% 71.4% 1.40 -8.4%

Home O1.5 63.0% 57.8% 1.73 +9.0%

Away O1.5 47.4% 54.6% 1.83 -13.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 36%

ROI 9.7%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 69%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob65.4%

H 52% / xG 2.4-1.6 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 65%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.5%

#2 1–1 7.0%

#3 3–1 6.8%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 1–2 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nõmme United2.4

Tammeka1.6

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.6% · O3.5 PROB 47.2%

Form & verdict PPG

NÕMME UNITED · PPG 1.09

TAMMEKA · PPG 1.11

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.81 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Nõmme United (H) 52.5%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +15.5%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -12.3%

Tammeka (A) 26.0%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -20.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nõmme United face Tammeka in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nõmme United a 53% chance, the draw 22% and Tammeka 26%, so Nõmme United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Nõmme United and 1.6 for Tammeka (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nõmme United are averaging 1.09 points per game versus 1.11 for Tammeka. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +21.0%.

Nõmme United vs Tammeka Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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