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Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 15:30

Cracovia Krakow

PPG 1.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

Raków Częstochowa

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.0%0-110.7%0-25.2%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.6%1-113.2%1-26.4%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.4%2-18.2%2-24.0%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.5%3-13.4%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.4%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.8% 36.4% 2.75 +17.7%

Draw 30.0% 30.3% 3.30 -1.0%

Away win 27.2% 40.7% 2.46 -19.9%

Over 2.5 42.7% 47.6% 2.10 -10.3%

Over 3.5 21.1% 26.0% 3.85 -11.3%

BTTS 47.7% 54.6% 1.83 -12.7%

Home O1.5 33.9% 37.7% 2.65 -10.2%

Away O1.5 26.6% 40.8% 2.45 -20.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 45%

ROI -12.3%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob47.7%

H 43% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 11.0%

#3 1–0 13.6%

#4 0–1 10.7%

#5 2–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cracovia Krakow1.2

Raków Częstochowa1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 21.1%

Form & verdict PPG

CRACOVIA KRAKOW · PPG 1.20

RAKÓW CZĘSTOCHOWA · PPG 1.30

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.27, combined xG 2.21 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Cracovia Krakow (H) 42.8%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +17.7%

Draw 30.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -1.0%

Raków Częstochowa (A) 27.2%

ODDS 2.46 · IMPLIED 40.7% EV -19.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cracovia Krakow face Raków Częstochowa in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cracovia Krakow a 43% chance, the draw 30% and Raków Częstochowa 27%, so Cracovia Krakow are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Cracovia Krakow and 1.0 for Raków Częstochowa (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.30 for Raków Częstochowa. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +9.6%.

Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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