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Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Regular Season - 2 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 12:45

Legia Warszawa

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Zaglebie Lubin

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.2%0-110.8%0-24.4%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.9%1-113.0%1-25.3%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.6%2-17.8%2-23.2%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.8%3-13.1%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.2%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.2% — — —

Draw 29.4% — — —

Away win 24.4% — — —

Over 2.5 44.0% — — —

Over 3.5 22.8% — — —

BTTS 48.7% — — —

Home O1.5 33.0% — — —

Away O1.5 20.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -7.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.7%

H 46% / xG 1.2-0.8 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.2%

#2 1–1 13.0%

#3 1–0 15.9%

#4 2–0 9.6%

#5 0–1 10.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Legia Warszawa1.2

Zaglebie Lubin0.8

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.8%

Form & verdict PPG

LEGIA WARSZAWA · PPG 1.67

ZAGLEBIE LUBIN · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.38, combined xG 2.02 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Legia Warszawa (H) 46.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 29.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Zaglebie Lubin (A) 24.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Legia Warszawa face Zaglebie Lubin in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Legia Warszawa a 46% chance, the draw 29% and Zaglebie Lubin 24%, so Legia Warszawa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Legia Warszawa and 0.8 for Zaglebie Lubin (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.33 for Zaglebie Lubin.

Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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