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Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Matchday 2 ·Monday, August 3, 2026, 17:00

Cracovia Krakow

PPG 1.44 · HOME

UPCOMING

Pogon Szczecin

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 50.0% vs bookmaker-implied 45.0% — a clear edge.

+11.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.5%0-19.2%0-23.4%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.8%1-112.4%1-24.5%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.3%2-18.3%2-23.1%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.1%3-13.7%3-21.4%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-11.7%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.0% 45.0% 2.22 +11.0%

Draw 27.1% 32.8% 3.05 -10.4%

Away win 22.9% 29.4% 3.40 -13.3%

Over 2.5 44.0% 45.5% 2.20 -3.2%

Over 3.5 22.8% 25.0% 4.00 -5.3%

BTTS 48.7% 52.6% 1.90 -7.5%

Home O1.5 38.3% 42.6% 2.35 -10.0%

Away O1.5 20.3% 31.3% 3.20 -21.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -7.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.7%

H 50% / xG 1.3-0.7 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.8%

#2 0–0 12.5%

#3 1–1 12.4%

#4 2–0 11.3%

#5 2–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cracovia Krakow1.3

Pogon Szczecin0.7

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CRACOVIA KRAKOW · PPG 1.44

POGON SZCZECIN · PPG 1.10

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.61 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Cracovia Krakow (H) 50.0%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV +11.0%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -10.4%

Pogon Szczecin (A) 22.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -13.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cracovia Krakow face Pogon Szczecin in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Monday, August 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cracovia Krakow a 50% chance, the draw 27% and Pogon Szczecin 23%, so Cracovia Krakow are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Cracovia Krakow and 0.7 for Pogon Szczecin (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.10 for Pogon Szczecin. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +5.3%.

Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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