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Pogon Szczecin vs Motor Lublin Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 15:30

Pogon Szczecin

PPG 1.25 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Motor Lublin

PPG 1.19 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-15.8%0-22.9%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.5%1-110.7%1-25.4%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.7%2-19.9%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.0%3-16.1%3-23.1%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-14.3%4+-22.2%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.4% 49.5% 2.02 +5.9%

Draw 24.6% 27.4% 3.65 -6.1%

Away win 23.0% 29.9% 3.35 -13.8%

Over 2.5 53.4% 63.7% 1.57 -16.2%

Over 3.5 32.3% 41.7% 2.40 -22.5%

BTTS 53.1% 66.7% 1.50 -20.3%

Home O1.5 55.4% 57.1% 1.75 -3.0%

Away O1.5 32.1% 43.5% 2.30 -26.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -12.3%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.1%

H 52% / xG 1.9-1.0 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.7%

#4 1–0 10.5%

#5 0–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pogon Szczecin1.9

Motor Lublin1.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

POGON SZCZECIN · PPG 1.25

MOTOR LUBLIN · PPG 1.19

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.84 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Pogon Szczecin (H) 52.4%

ODDS 2.02 · IMPLIED 49.5% EV +5.9%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -6.1%

Motor Lublin (A) 23.0%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -13.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pogon Szczecin face Motor Lublin in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pogon Szczecin a 52% chance, the draw 25% and Motor Lublin 23%, so Pogon Szczecin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Pogon Szczecin and 1.0 for Motor Lublin (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.19 for Motor Lublin. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +7.2%. This match finished 3-1.

Pogon Szczecin vs Motor Lublin Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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