Today / Poland - Ekstraklasa / Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom

Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Matchday 4 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 18:30

Legia Warszawa

PPG 1.89 · HOME

UPCOMING

Radomiak Radom

PPG 0.85 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 62.6% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-14.1%0-21.7%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.8%1-19.0%1-23.7%1-31.0%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.7%2-19.7%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.5%3-17.0%3-22.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-07.6%4+-16.3%4+-22.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.6% 63.7% 1.57 -3.3%

Draw 22.8% 23.8% 4.20 -2.5%

Away win 15.6% 19.2% 5.20 -11.3%

Over 2.5 53.7% 60.6% 1.65 -11.4%

Over 3.5 31.8% 37.7% 2.65 -15.7%

BTTS 51.4% 57.8% 1.73 -11.1%

Home O1.5 62.6% 63.7% 1.57 -1.7%

Away O1.5 21.1% 29.4% 3.40 -17.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -12.3%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob51.4%

H 62% / xG 2.2-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.7%

#2 1–1 9.0%

#3 2–1 9.7%

#4 1–0 10.8%

#5 3–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Legia Warszawa2.2

Radomiak Radom0.8

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

LEGIA WARSZAWA · PPG 1.89

RADOMIAK RADOM · PPG 0.85

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.34 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Legia Warszawa (H) 61.6%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -3.3%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -2.5%

Radomiak Radom (A) 15.6%

ODDS 5.20 · IMPLIED 19.2% EV -11.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Legia Warszawa face Radomiak Radom in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Legia Warszawa a 62% chance, the draw 23% and Radomiak Radom 16%, so Legia Warszawa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Legia Warszawa and 0.8 for Radomiak Radom (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 0.85 for Radomiak Radom.

Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

More Poland - Ekstraklasa Predictions