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Lech Poznan vs Piast Gliwice Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 15:30

Lech Poznan

PPG 1.45 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Piast Gliwice

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 62.4% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-14.0%0-22.0%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-08.7%1-18.8%1-24.5%1-31.5%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.7%2-19.8%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.2%3-17.3%3-23.7%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-06.8%4+-16.9%4+-23.5%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.3% 63.7% 1.57 -10.0%

Draw 21.9% 23.8% 4.20 -4.8%

Away win 20.7% 19.2% 5.20 +4.6%

Over 2.5 63.4% 61.7% 1.62 +2.7%

Over 3.5 39.5% 39.2% 2.55 +0.7%

BTTS 55.2% 59.9% 1.67 -7.8%

Home O1.5 62.4% 64.5% 1.55 -3.3%

Away O1.5 31.7% 30.8% 3.25 +3.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -12.3%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.2%

H 57% / xG 2.2-1.0 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.8%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.7%

#4 1–0 8.7%

#5 3–1 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lech Poznan2.2

Piast Gliwice1.0

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.5%

Form & verdict PPG

LECH POZNAN · PPG 1.45

PIAST GLIWICE · PPG 0.94

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.22 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Lech Poznan (H) 57.3%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -10.0%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -4.8%

Piast Gliwice (A) 20.7%

ODDS 5.20 · IMPLIED 19.2% EV +4.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lech Poznan face Piast Gliwice in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lech Poznan a 57% chance, the draw 22% and Piast Gliwice 21%, so Lech Poznan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Lech Poznan and 1.0 for Piast Gliwice (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lech Poznan are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 0.94 for Piast Gliwice. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +3.0%. This match finished 3-0.

Lech Poznan vs Piast Gliwice Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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