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Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 12:45

Radomiak Radom

PPG 2.03 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Gornik Zabrze

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-16.4%0-24.2%0-31.9%0-4+0.8%1 1-08.2%1-110.9%1-27.2%1-33.2%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.0%2-19.3%2-26.2%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-04.0%3-15.3%3-23.5%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.3%4+-22.2%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.7% 36.8% 2.72 +27.0%

Draw 26.9% 29.0% 3.45 -4.3%

Away win 26.4% 41.0% 2.44 -21.3%

Over 2.5 53.5% 54.1% 1.85 -1.0%

Over 3.5 32.3% 30.8% 3.25 +5.0%

BTTS 54.6% 58.8% 1.70 -7.2%

Home O1.5 49.2% 40.8% 2.45 +20.5%

Away O1.5 43.7% 44.4% 2.25 -1.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -12.3%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.6%

H 47% / xG 1.7-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–2 7.2%

#4 2–0 7.0%

#5 1–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Radomiak Radom1.7

Gornik Zabrze1.3

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

RADOMIAK RADOM · PPG 2.03

GORNIK ZABRZE · PPG 1.36

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.38 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Radomiak Radom (H) 46.7%

ODDS 2.72 · IMPLIED 36.8% EV +27.0%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -4.3%

Gornik Zabrze (A) 26.4%

ODDS 2.44 · IMPLIED 41.0% EV -21.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Radomiak Radom face Gornik Zabrze in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Radomiak Radom a 47% chance, the draw 27% and Gornik Zabrze 26%, so Radomiak Radom are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Radomiak Radom and 1.3 for Gornik Zabrze (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Radomiak Radom are averaging 2.03 points per game versus 1.36 for Gornik Zabrze. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +26.8%. This match finished 1-3.

Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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