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Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 18:15

Korona Kielce

PPG 1.52 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Legia Warszawa

PPG 1.69 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.5%0-113.2%0-27.0%0-32.4%0-4+0.8%1 1-012.8%1-113.5%1-27.1%1-32.5%1-4+0.8%2 2-06.6%2-16.9%2-23.6%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.2%3-12.4%3-21.2%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.8%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.5% 36.2% 2.76 +0.7%

Draw 28.9% 30.3% 3.30 -2.8%

Away win 34.7% 40.3% 2.48 -13.9%

Over 2.5 44.0% 50.0% 2.00 -12.0%

Over 3.5 22.0% 28.6% 3.50 -13.8%

BTTS 49.4% 57.1% 1.75 -13.6%

Home O1.5 32.1% 39.2% 2.55 -18.1%

Away O1.5 33.6% 41.7% 2.40 -19.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -12.3%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob49.4%

D 29% / xG 1.0-1.1 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.5%

#2 0–0 12.5%

#3 0–1 13.2%

#4 1–0 12.8%

#5 1–2 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Korona Kielce1.0

Legia Warszawa1.1

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.0%

Form & verdict PPG

KORONA KIELCE · PPG 1.52

LEGIA WARSZAWA · PPG 1.69

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.03, combined xG 2.08 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Korona Kielce (H) 36.5%

ODDS 2.76 · IMPLIED 36.2% EV +0.7%

Draw 28.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -2.8%

Legia Warszawa (A) 34.7%

ODDS 2.48 · IMPLIED 40.3% EV -13.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Korona Kielce face Legia Warszawa in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Korona Kielce a 37% chance, the draw 29% and Legia Warszawa 35%, so Korona Kielce are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Korona Kielce and 1.1 for Legia Warszawa (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Korona Kielce are averaging 1.52 points per game versus 1.69 for Legia Warszawa. This match finished 1-1.

Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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