Today / Kazakhstan - Premier League / Atyrau vs Okzhetpes

Atyrau vs Okzhetpes Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Matchday 22 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 15:00

Atyrau

PPG 1.10 · HOME

UPCOMING

Okzhetpes

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.3%0-110.9%0-24.8%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.9%1-113.2%1-25.8%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.0%2-18.0%2-23.5%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.6%3-13.2%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.3%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.0% 40.0% 2.50 +12.5%

Draw 27.5% 31.3% 3.20 -7.2%

Away win 27.5% 38.2% 2.62 -16.8%

Over 2.5 45.9% 50.0% 2.00 -8.2%

Over 3.5 27.9% 29.4% 3.40 -3.1%

BTTS 49.2% 58.8% 1.70 -16.4%

Home O1.5 32.0% 42.6% 2.35 -24.8%

Away O1.5 23.6% 40.8% 2.45 -25.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 25.3%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.2%

H 45% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 12.3%

#3 1–0 14.9%

#4 2–0 9.0%

#5 0–1 10.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atyrau1.2

Okzhetpes0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 27.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ATYRAU · PPG 1.10

OKZHETPES · PPG 1.10

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.33, combined xG 2.10 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Atyrau (H) 45.0%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +12.5%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -7.2%

Okzhetpes (A) 27.5%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -16.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atyrau face Okzhetpes in Kazakhstan - Premier League on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atyrau a 45% chance, the draw 28% and Okzhetpes 28%, so Atyrau are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Atyrau and 0.9 for Okzhetpes (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atyrau are averaging 1.10 points per game versus 1.10 for Okzhetpes. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +5.5%.

Atyrau vs Okzhetpes Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Kazakhstan - Premier League Predictions