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Ordabasy vs Altay Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 15:00

Ordabasy

PPG 2.64 · HOME

UPCOMING

Altay

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +2.27 for Home, form 2.64 vs 0.80 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-11.9%0-20.5%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-010.6%1-15.3%1-21.3%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-014.6%2-17.3%2-21.8%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-013.5%3-16.7%3-21.7%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-018.3%4+-19.1%4+-22.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 76.1% — — —

Draw 16.2% — — —

Away win 7.7% — — —

Over 2.5 63.1% — — —

Over 3.5 38.8% — — —

BTTS 47.7% — — —

Home O1.5 64.4% — — —

Away O1.5 16.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 25.3%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 59%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob47.7%

H 76% / xG 2.8-0.5 / O2.5 63% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.6%

#2 3–0 13.5%

#3 1–0 10.6%

#4 4–0 9.3%

#5 2–1 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ordabasy2.8

Altay0.5

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 38.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ORDABASY · PPG 2.64

ALTAY · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.27 for Home, form 2.64 vs 0.80 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Ordabasy (H) 76.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 16.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Altay (A) 7.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Ordabasy face Altay in Kazakhstan - Premier League on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ordabasy a 76% chance, the draw 16% and Altay 8%, so Ordabasy are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Ordabasy and 0.5 for Altay (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ordabasy are averaging 2.64 points per game versus 0.80 for Altay.

Ordabasy vs Altay Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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