Today / Kazakhstan - Premier League / Atyrau vs Aktobe

Atyrau vs Aktobe Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Matchday 21 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 15:00

Atyrau

PPG 1.11 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Aktobe

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 49.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.5%0-112.3%0-25.2%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.7%1-113.3%1-25.6%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.5%2-17.2%2-23.0%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.1%3-12.6%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-10.9%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.4% 32.3% 3.10 +31.4%

Draw 28.1% 31.3% 3.20 -6.0%

Away win 29.5% 46.5% 2.15 -21.9%

Over 2.5 45.9% 46.5% 2.15 -1.3%

Over 3.5 28.8% 25.3% 3.95 +8.3%

BTTS 49.6% 54.1% 1.85 -8.2%

Home O1.5 32.1% 33.3% 3.00 -3.7%

Away O1.5 20.4% 43.5% 2.30 -31.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 25.3%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.6%

H 42% / xG 1.1-0.8 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.5%

#2 1–1✓ 13.3%

#3 1–0 15.7%

#4 0–1 12.3%

#5 2–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atyrau1.1

Aktobe0.8

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ATYRAU · PPG 1.11

AKTOBE · PPG 0.56

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.24, combined xG 1.93 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Atyrau (H) 42.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +31.4%

Draw 28.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -6.0%

Aktobe (A) 29.5%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -21.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atyrau face Aktobe in Kazakhstan - Premier League on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atyrau a 42% chance, the draw 28% and Aktobe 30%, so Atyrau are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Atyrau and 0.8 for Aktobe (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atyrau are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 0.56 for Aktobe. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +11.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Atyrau vs Aktobe Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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