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Irtysh vs FK Tobol Kostanay Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Matchday 22 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 12:00

Irtysh

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

FK Tobol Kostanay

PPG 0.18 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-17.9%0-23.5%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.9%1-112.1%1-25.3%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.6%2-19.2%2-24.0%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.4%3-14.7%3-22.0%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-12.5%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.8% 37.7% 2.65 +32.0%

Draw 26.6% 29.9% 3.35 -6.5%

Away win 23.6% 42.0% 2.38 -26.3%

Over 2.5 49.9% 55.6% 1.80 -10.2%

Over 3.5 28.7% 33.3% 3.00 -8.3%

BTTS 53.1% 61.7% 1.62 -14.0%

Home O1.5 45.1% 43.5% 2.30 +3.7%

Away O1.5 22.7% 46.5% 2.15 -30.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 25.3%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.1%

H 50% / xG 1.5-0.9 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–0 13.9%

#3 0–0 9.1%

#4 2–0 10.6%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Irtysh1.5

FK Tobol Kostanay0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

IRTYSH · PPG 1.00

FK TOBOL KOSTANAY · PPG 0.18

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.65 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Irtysh (H) 49.8%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV +32.0%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -6.5%

FK Tobol Kostanay (A) 23.6%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -26.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Irtysh face FK Tobol Kostanay in Kazakhstan - Premier League on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Irtysh a 50% chance, the draw 27% and FK Tobol Kostanay 24%, so Irtysh are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Irtysh and 0.9 for FK Tobol Kostanay (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Irtysh are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.18 for FK Tobol Kostanay. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +13.1%.

Irtysh vs FK Tobol Kostanay Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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