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Yelimay Semey vs Irtysh Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Matchday 21 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 14:00

Yelimay Semey

PPG 1.33 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Irtysh

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-17.1%0-22.9%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.2%1-111.5%1-24.7%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.5%2-19.4%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.3%3-15.1%3-22.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-13.0%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.6% 57.1% 1.75 -9.7%

Draw 25.8% 28.2% 3.55 -5.1%

Away win 22.6% 24.4% 4.10 -4.4%

Over 2.5 50.3% 52.6% 1.90 -4.4%

Over 3.5 28.8% 31.3% 3.20 -4.7%

BTTS 49.6% 57.1% 1.75 -13.2%

Home O1.5 47.5% 55.6% 1.80 -14.5%

Away O1.5 20.4% 30.3% 3.30 -19.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 25.3%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.6%

H 52% / xG 1.6-0.8 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–0 14.2%

#3 2–0 11.5%

#4 0–0 8.7%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Yelimay Semey1.6

Irtysh0.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

YELIMAY SEMEY · PPG 1.33

IRTYSH · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.82 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Yelimay Semey (H) 51.6%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -9.7%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -5.1%

Irtysh (A) 22.6%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -4.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Yelimay Semey face Irtysh in Kazakhstan - Premier League on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Yelimay Semey a 52% chance, the draw 26% and Irtysh 23%, so Yelimay Semey are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Yelimay Semey and 0.8 for Irtysh (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Yelimay Semey are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.80 for Irtysh. This match finished 3-1.

Yelimay Semey vs Irtysh Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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