Today / Kazakhstan - Premier League / FC Astana vs Okzhetpes

FC Astana vs Okzhetpes Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Matchday 21 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 13:00

FC Astana

PPG 2.80 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Okzhetpes

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 66.2% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-13.1%0-21.4%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.4%1-17.7%1-23.5%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.3%2-19.5%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.5%3-17.8%3-23.6%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-09.5%4+-18.7%4+-24.0%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.2% 63.7% 1.57 +3.9%

Draw 17.1% 25.0% 4.00 -19.0%

Away win 16.7% 21.1% 4.75 -12.4%

Over 2.5 63.8% 58.8% 1.70 +8.5%

Over 3.5 43.0% 35.7% 2.80 +20.4%

BTTS 54.6% 57.8% 1.73 -5.5%

Home O1.5 62.8% 62.5% 1.60 +0.5%

Away O1.5 25.2% 29.9% 3.35 -9.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 25.3%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.6%

H 66% / xG 2.5-0.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.3%

#2 2–1✓ 9.5%

#3 1–1 7.7%

#4 3–0 8.5%

#5 3–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Astana2.5

Okzhetpes0.9

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.8% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

FC ASTANA · PPG 2.80

OKZHETPES · PPG 1.22

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.56 for Home, form 2.80 vs 1.22 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

FC Astana (H) 66.2%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV +3.9%

Draw 17.1%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -19.0%

Okzhetpes (A) 16.7%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -12.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Astana face Okzhetpes in Kazakhstan - Premier League on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Astana a 66% chance, the draw 17% and Okzhetpes 17%, so FC Astana are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for FC Astana and 0.9 for Okzhetpes (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Astana are averaging 2.80 points per game versus 1.22 for Okzhetpes. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +20.4%. This match finished 2-1.

FC Astana vs Okzhetpes Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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