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Kyzyl-Zhar vs FC Astana Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Matchday 22 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 14:00

Kyzyl-Zhar

PPG 1.27 · HOME

UPCOMING

FC Astana

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-17.7%0-25.0%0-32.1%0-4+0.9%1 1-09.2%1-111.8%1-27.6%1-33.3%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.0%2-19.0%2-25.8%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.6%3-14.6%3-22.9%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.4%4+-21.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.6% 28.6% 3.50 +59.6%

Draw 24.7% 29.9% 3.35 -10.3%

Away win 29.7% 52.4% 1.91 -26.0%

Over 2.5 53.7% 50.0% 2.00 +7.4%

Over 3.5 31.8% 28.6% 3.50 +11.3%

BTTS 54.5% 56.5% 1.77 -3.5%

Home O1.5 45.1% 33.3% 3.00 +35.3%

Away O1.5 36.6% 50.0% 2.00 -26.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 25.3%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.5%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 0–0 6.0%

#4 1–2 7.6%

#5 1–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kyzyl-Zhar1.5

FC Astana1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

KYZYL-ZHAR · PPG 1.27

FC ASTANA · PPG 0.78

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.24 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Kyzyl-Zhar (H) 45.6%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +59.6%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -10.3%

FC Astana (A) 29.7%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -26.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kyzyl-Zhar face FC Astana in Kazakhstan - Premier League on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kyzyl-Zhar a 46% chance, the draw 25% and FC Astana 30%, so Kyzyl-Zhar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Kyzyl-Zhar and 1.3 for FC Astana (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kyzyl-Zhar are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 0.78 for FC Astana. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +48.4%.

Kyzyl-Zhar vs FC Astana Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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