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Kaisar vs Aktobe Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 15:00

Kaisar

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Aktobe

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.4%0-111.9%0-25.7%0-31.8%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.0%1-113.4%1-26.4%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-07.9%2-17.6%2-23.6%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.0%3-12.9%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.0%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.8% — — —

Draw 29.1% — — —

Away win 30.2% — — —

Over 2.5 44.8% — — —

Over 3.5 24.1% — — —

BTTS 49.2% — — —

Home O1.5 30.2% — — —

Away O1.5 26.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 25.3%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.2%

H 41% / xG 1.1-1.0 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 12.4%

#3 1–0 14.0%

#4 0–1 11.9%

#5 2–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kaisar1.1

Aktobe1.0

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 24.1%

Form & verdict PPG

KAISAR · PPG 1.00

AKTOBE · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.18, combined xG 2.09 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Kaisar (H) 40.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 29.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Aktobe (A) 30.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Kaisar face Aktobe in Kazakhstan - Premier League on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kaisar a 41% chance, the draw 29% and Aktobe 30%, so Kaisar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Kaisar and 1.0 for Aktobe (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kaisar are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.60 for Aktobe.

Kaisar vs Aktobe Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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