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Kaspiy vs Yelimay Semey Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Matchday 22 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 13:00

Kaspiy

PPG 1.56 · HOME

UPCOMING

Yelimay Semey

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-18.6%0-25.5%0-32.4%0-4+1.0%1 1-09.5%1-112.2%1-27.8%1-33.3%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.8%2-18.7%2-25.5%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.2%3-14.1%3-22.6%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.0%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.1% 34.7% 2.88 +29.9%

Draw 25.1% 31.3% 3.20 -11.8%

Away win 29.8% 44.4% 2.25 -19.8%

Over 2.5 53.7% 50.0% 2.00 +7.4%

Over 3.5 31.8% 29.0% 3.45 +9.7%

BTTS 54.5% 57.8% 1.73 -5.7%

Home O1.5 45.1% 37.7% 2.65 +19.5%

Away O1.5 36.6% 44.4% 2.25 -17.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 25.3%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.5%

H 45% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 0–0 6.7%

#4 1–2 7.8%

#5 1–0 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kaspiy1.4

Yelimay Semey1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

KASPIY · PPG 1.56

YELIMAY SEMEY · PPG 1.60

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.14 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Kaspiy (H) 45.1%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +29.9%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -11.8%

Yelimay Semey (A) 29.8%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -19.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kaspiy face Yelimay Semey in Kazakhstan - Premier League on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kaspiy a 45% chance, the draw 25% and Yelimay Semey 30%, so Kaspiy are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Kaspiy and 1.3 for Yelimay Semey (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kaspiy are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.60 for Yelimay Semey. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +19.5%.

Kaspiy vs Yelimay Semey Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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