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Bunyodkor vs Olmaliq Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Matchday 16 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 14:30

Bunyodkor

PPG 0.86 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Olmaliq

PPG 1.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.9% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-19.5%0-27.4%0-33.9%0-4+2.1%1 1-07.5%1-111.7%1-29.2%1-34.8%1-4+2.7%2 2-04.7%2-17.3%2-25.7%2-33.0%2-4+1.6%3 3-01.9%3-13.0%3-22.4%3-31.2%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.2%4+-21.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.4% 30.8% 3.25 +2.1%

Draw 25.0% 30.3% 3.30 -10.5%

Away win 43.6% 52.4% 1.91 -16.7%

Over 2.5 60.4% 56.8% 1.76 +6.3%

Over 3.5 36.8% 35.3% 2.83 +4.1%

BTTS 59.9% 61.7% 1.62 -3.0%

Home O1.5 34.6% 37.3% 2.68 -7.3%

Away O1.5 48.2% 51.5% 1.94 -6.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 61%

ROI 1.3%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob59.9%

A 44% / xG 1.2-1.6 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 0–0 6.0%

#4 0–1 9.5%

#5 0–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bunyodkor1.2

Olmaliq1.6

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.4% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

BUNYODKOR · PPG 0.86

OLMALIQ · PPG 1.86

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.32 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Bunyodkor (H) 31.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +2.1%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -10.5%

Olmaliq (A) 43.6%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -16.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bunyodkor face Olmaliq in Uzbekistan - Super League on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bunyodkor a 31% chance, the draw 25% and Olmaliq 44%, so Olmaliq are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Bunyodkor and 1.6 for Olmaliq (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bunyodkor are averaging 0.86 points per game versus 1.86 for Olmaliq. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +26.6%. This match finished 2-3.

Bunyodkor vs Olmaliq Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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