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Nasaf vs Kokand-1912 Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Matchday 16 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 15:00

Nasaf

PPG 1.57 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Kokand-1912

PPG 0.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 55.2% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.9%0-16.6%0-22.2%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.2%1-110.9%1-23.7%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.3%2-19.0%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.3%3-14.9%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-12.9%4+-21.0%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.2% 59.9% 1.67 -7.8%

Draw 24.2% 30.3% 3.30 -12.1%

Away win 20.6% 21.7% 4.60 -3.1%

Over 2.5 50.3% 48.8% 2.05 +3.1%

Over 3.5 28.8% 29.9% 3.34 -2.3%

BTTS 48.4% 51.3% 1.95 -5.6%

Home O1.5 47.5% 54.6% 1.83 -13.1%

Away O1.5 17.4% 22.7% 4.40 -14.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 61%

ROI 1.3%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.4%

H 55% / xG 1.6-0.7 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.2%

#2 2–0 13.3%

#3 1–1 10.9%

#4 0–0✓ 9.9%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nasaf1.6

Kokand-19120.7

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

NASAF · PPG 1.57

KOKAND-1912 · PPG 0.38

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.97 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Nasaf (H) 55.2%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -7.8%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -12.1%

Kokand-1912 (A) 20.6%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -3.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nasaf face Kokand-1912 in Uzbekistan - Super League on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nasaf a 55% chance, the draw 24% and Kokand-1912 21%, so Nasaf are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Nasaf and 0.7 for Kokand-1912 (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nasaf are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 0.38 for Kokand-1912. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +3.1%. This match finished 0-0.

Nasaf vs Kokand-1912 Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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