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FBK Karlstad vs Enköping Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra · Matchday 17 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 14:00

FBK Karlstad

PPG 1.38 · HOME

UPCOMING

Enköping

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 62.9% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-17.6%0-26.3%0-33.5%0-4+2.1%1 1-06.5%1-110.8%1-29.0%1-35.0%1-4+3.0%2 2-04.7%2-17.7%2-26.4%2-33.5%2-4+2.1%3 3-02.2%3-13.7%3-23.1%3-31.7%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.8%4+-21.5%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.9% 52.4% 1.91 -39.1%

Draw 23.4% 27.4% 3.65 -8.8%

Away win 44.7% 30.8% 3.25 +45.3%

Over 2.5 62.9% 61.7% 1.62 +1.9%

Over 3.5 38.7% 40.0% 2.50 -3.3%

BTTS 61.6% 65.4% 1.53 -5.8%

Home O1.5 45.1% 57.8% 1.73 -22.0%

Away O1.5 47.7% 41.7% 2.40 +14.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -3.7%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob61.6%

A 45% / xG 1.4-1.7 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 2–1 7.7%

#4 2–2 6.4%

#5 0–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FBK Karlstad1.4

Enköping1.7

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.9% · O3.5 PROB 38.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FBK KARLSTAD · PPG 1.38

ENKÖPING · PPG 1.29

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.23 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

FBK Karlstad (H) 31.9%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -39.1%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -8.8%

Enköping (A) 44.7%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +45.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

FBK Karlstad face Enköping in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FBK Karlstad a 32% chance, the draw 23% and Enköping 45%, so Enköping are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for FBK Karlstad and 1.7 for Enköping (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FBK Karlstad are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.29 for Enköping. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +53.5%.

FBK Karlstad vs Enköping Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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