Today / Sweden - Ettan - Norra / Piteå vs Vasalund

Piteå vs Vasalund Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra · Matchday 17 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 10:30

Piteå

PPG 0.25 · HOME

UPCOMING

Vasalund

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-16.9%0-27.0%0-34.7%0-4+3.8%1 1-04.6%1-19.3%1-29.5%1-36.4%1-4+5.1%2 2-03.1%2-16.3%2-26.4%2-34.3%2-4+3.5%3 3-01.4%3-12.9%3-22.9%3-32.0%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.3%4+-21.3%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.5% 27.4% 3.65 +15.0%

Draw 22.9% 27.4% 3.65 -9.8%

Away win 45.6% 55.6% 1.80 -17.9%

Over 2.5 63.1% 64.5% 1.55 -2.2%

Over 3.5 40.1% 42.6% 2.35 -5.8%

BTTS 61.6% 67.6% 1.48 -8.8%

Home O1.5 37.9% 40.8% 2.45 -7.1%

Away O1.5 53.8% 60.6% 1.65 -11.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -3.7%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob61.6%

A 46% / xG 1.4-2.0 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 1–2 9.5%

#3 0–2 7.0%

#4 2–2 6.4%

#5 1–3 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Piteå1.4

Vasalund2.0

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 40.1%

Form & verdict PPG

PITEÅ · PPG 0.25

VASALUND · PPG 0.75

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.67 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Piteå (H) 31.5%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +15.0%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -9.8%

Vasalund (A) 45.6%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -17.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Piteå face Vasalund in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Piteå a 32% chance, the draw 23% and Vasalund 46%, so Vasalund are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Piteå and 2.0 for Vasalund (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Piteå are averaging 0.25 points per game versus 0.75 for Vasalund. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +9.6%.

Piteå vs Vasalund Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

More Sweden - Ettan - Norra Predictions