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Stockholm Internazionale vs Arlanda Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra · Matchday 17 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 11:00

Stockholm Internazionale

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Arlanda

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-19.3%0-25.4%0-32.1%0-4+0.8%1 1-011.0%1-112.7%1-27.3%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.5%2-18.6%2-25.0%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.4%3-13.9%3-22.3%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.8%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.6% 69.4% 1.44 -31.5%

Draw 24.3% 23.8% 4.20 +1.2%

Away win 28.1% 16.0% 6.25 +45.4%

Over 2.5 53.7% 60.6% 1.65 -11.4%

Over 3.5 31.8% 38.5% 2.60 -17.3%

BTTS 54.5% 57.8% 1.73 -5.7%

Home O1.5 37.9% 67.6% 1.48 -43.9%

Away O1.5 34.7% 26.7% 3.75 +30.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -3.7%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.5%

H 48% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 8.1%

#3 1–0 11.0%

#4 2–1 8.6%

#5 2–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stockholm Internazionale1.4

Arlanda1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

STOCKHOLM INTERNAZIONALE · PPG 2.00

ARLANDA · PPG 2.00

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.20 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Stockholm Internazionale (H) 47.6%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -31.5%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +1.2%

Arlanda (A) 28.1%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV +45.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stockholm Internazionale face Arlanda in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stockholm Internazionale a 48% chance, the draw 24% and Arlanda 28%, so Stockholm Internazionale are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Stockholm Internazionale and 1.2 for Arlanda (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stockholm Internazionale are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.00 for Arlanda. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +86.2%.

Stockholm Internazionale vs Arlanda Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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