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Banfield vs I. Rivadavia Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Apertura - 15 ·Monday, April 20, 2026, 20:15

Banfield

PPG 1.86 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

I. Rivadavia

PPG 2.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.1% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a clear edge.

+15.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-17.6%0-25.5%0-32.6%0-4+1.3%1 1-08.0%1-111.5%1-28.2%1-33.9%1-4+1.9%2 2-06.0%2-18.6%2-26.1%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-03.0%3-14.3%3-23.1%3-31.5%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.2%4+-21.6%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.3% 34.7% 2.88 +13.2%

Draw 24.6% 35.1% 2.85 -29.9%

Away win 36.1% 37.0% 2.70 -2.5%

Over 2.5 56.1% 40.8% 2.45 +37.5%

Over 3.5 33.7% 21.1% 4.75 +60.1%

BTTS 59.1% 51.3% 1.95 +15.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 28%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 69%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -39.3%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob59.1%

H 39% / xG 1.5-1.4 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–2 8.2%

#4 1–0 8.0%

#5 0–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Banfield1.5

I. Rivadavia1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BANFIELD · PPG 1.86

I. RIVADAVIA · PPG 2.60

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.60) vs Home GOOD (1.86)

Win probability 1X2

Banfield (H) 39.3%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +13.2%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -29.9%

I. Rivadavia (A) 36.1%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -2.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Banfield face I. Rivadavia in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Monday, April 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Banfield a 39% chance, the draw 25% and I. Rivadavia 36%, so Banfield are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Banfield and 1.4 for I. Rivadavia (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Banfield are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 2.60 for I. Rivadavia. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +60.1%. This match finished 0-0.

Banfield vs I. Rivadavia Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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