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Gresford Athletic vs Brickfield Rangers Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

North · Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 13:30

Gresford Athletic

PPG 1.16 · HOME

UPCOMING

Brickfield Rangers

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-16.2%0-26.6%0-34.7%0-4+4.0%1 1-04.1%1-18.8%1-29.3%1-36.6%1-4+5.7%2 2-02.9%2-16.2%2-26.5%2-34.6%2-4+4.0%3 3-01.4%3-12.9%3-23.1%3-32.2%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.4%4+-21.5%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.3% — — —

Draw 23.4% — — —

Away win 50.2% — — —

Over 2.5 60.6% — — —

Over 3.5 38.8% — — —

BTTS 60.6% — — —

Home O1.5 45.1% — — —

Away O1.5 56.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 32%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob60.6%

A 50% / xG 1.4-2.1 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.8%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 0–2 6.6%

#4 1–3 6.6%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gresford Athletic1.4

Brickfield Rangers2.1

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.6% · O3.5 PROB 38.8%

Form & verdict PPG

GRESFORD ATHLETIC · PPG 1.16

BRICKFIELD RANGERS · PPG 1.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.71 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Gresford Athletic (H) 26.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Brickfield Rangers (A) 50.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Gresford Athletic face Brickfield Rangers in Wales - FAW Championship on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gresford Athletic a 26% chance, the draw 23% and Brickfield Rangers 50%, so Brickfield Rangers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Gresford Athletic and 2.1 for Brickfield Rangers (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gresford Athletic are averaging 1.16 points per game versus 1.44 for Brickfield Rangers.

Gresford Athletic vs Brickfield Rangers Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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