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Cardiff Draconians vs Pontypridd Town Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

South · Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 13:30

Cardiff Draconians

PPG 1.61 · HOME

UPCOMING

Pontypridd Town

PPG 1.48 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-16.2%0-24.2%0-31.9%0-4+0.9%1 1-07.8%1-110.7%1-27.3%1-33.3%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.7%2-19.2%2-26.3%2-32.9%2-4+1.3%3 3-03.9%3-15.3%3-23.6%3-31.7%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.4%4+-22.3%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.6% — — —

Draw 24.7% — — —

Away win 29.7% — — —

Over 2.5 56.9% — — —

Over 3.5 36.5% — — —

BTTS 56.7% — — —

Home O1.5 49.2% — — —

Away O1.5 42.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 28%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob56.7%

H 46% / xG 1.7-1.4 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–2 7.3%

#4 2–0 6.7%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cardiff Draconians1.7

Pontypridd Town1.4

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.9% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CARDIFF DRACONIANS · PPG 1.61

PONTYPRIDD TOWN · PPG 1.48

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.35 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Cardiff Draconians (H) 45.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Pontypridd Town (A) 29.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Cardiff Draconians face Pontypridd Town in Wales - FAW Championship on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cardiff Draconians a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Pontypridd Town 30%, so Cardiff Draconians are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Cardiff Draconians and 1.4 for Pontypridd Town (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cardiff Draconians are averaging 1.61 points per game versus 1.48 for Pontypridd Town.

Cardiff Draconians vs Pontypridd Town Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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