Today / Wales - FAW Championship / Ynyshir Albions vs Aberystwyth Town

Ynyshir Albions vs Aberystwyth Town Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

South · Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 13:30

Ynyshir Albions

PPG 1.37 · HOME

UPCOMING

Aberystwyth Town

PPG 1.73 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap -0.01 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-18.8%0-26.1%0-32.8%0-4+1.3%1 1-08.7%1-112.1%1-28.3%1-33.8%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.0%2-18.3%2-25.7%2-32.6%2-4+1.2%3 3-02.7%3-13.8%3-22.6%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.8%4+-21.2%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.0% — — —

Draw 24.2% — — —

Away win 40.8% — — —

Over 2.5 53.7% — — —

Over 3.5 31.8% — — —

BTTS 54.5% — — —

Home O1.5 37.9% — — —

Away O1.5 42.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 28%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.5%

A 41% / xG 1.4-1.4 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–2 8.3%

#3 2–1 8.3%

#4 0–0 6.4%

#5 0–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ynyshir Albions1.4

Aberystwyth Town1.4

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

YNYSHIR ALBIONS · PPG 1.37

ABERYSTWYTH TOWN · PPG 1.73

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.01 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ynyshir Albions (H) 35.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Aberystwyth Town (A) 40.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Ynyshir Albions face Aberystwyth Town in Wales - FAW Championship on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ynyshir Albions a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Aberystwyth Town 41%, so Aberystwyth Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Ynyshir Albions and 1.4 for Aberystwyth Town (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ynyshir Albions are averaging 1.37 points per game versus 1.73 for Aberystwyth Town.

Ynyshir Albions vs Aberystwyth Town Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

More Wales - FAW Championship Predictions