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Llantwit Major vs Baglan Dragons Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

South · Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 13:30

Llantwit Major

PPG 1.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

Baglan Dragons

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.31, combined xG 2.41 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-19.4%0-24.9%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.3%1-112.8%1-26.7%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.3%2-18.7%2-24.6%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.8%3-14.0%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.8%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.9% — — —

Draw 26.9% — — —

Away win 28.2% — — —

Over 2.5 49.9% — — —

Over 3.5 28.7% — — —

BTTS 53.1% — — —

Home O1.5 37.9% — — —

Away O1.5 32.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 28%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.1%

H 45% / xG 1.4-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 9.0%

#3 1–0 12.3%

#4 2–1 8.7%

#5 2–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Llantwit Major1.4

Baglan Dragons1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LLANTWIT MAJOR · PPG 1.20

BAGLAN DRAGONS · PPG 0.94

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.31, combined xG 2.41 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Llantwit Major (H) 44.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Baglan Dragons (A) 28.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Llantwit Major face Baglan Dragons in Wales - FAW Championship on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Llantwit Major a 45% chance, the draw 27% and Baglan Dragons 28%, so Llantwit Major are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Llantwit Major and 1.0 for Baglan Dragons (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Llantwit Major are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 0.94 for Baglan Dragons.

Llantwit Major vs Baglan Dragons Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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