Today / Wales - FAW Championship / Ruthin Town vs Denbigh Town

Ruthin Town vs Denbigh Town Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

North · Matchday 3 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 19:00

Ruthin Town

PPG 0.98 · HOME

UPCOMING

Denbigh Town

PPG 1.41 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-15.4%0-24.7%0-32.8%0-4+1.8%1 1-05.2%1-19.3%1-28.2%1-34.8%1-4+3.2%2 2-04.5%2-18.0%2-27.1%2-34.2%2-4+2.8%3 3-02.6%3-14.6%3-24.1%3-32.4%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.9%4+-22.6%4+-31.5%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.0% — — —

Draw 24.8% — — —

Away win 39.1% — — —

Over 2.5 62.1% — — —

Over 3.5 38.8% — — —

BTTS 61.6% — — —

Home O1.5 49.2% — — —

Away O1.5 47.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 28%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob61.6%

A 39% / xG 1.7-1.8 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 1–2 8.2%

#3 2–1 8.0%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 1–3 4.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ruthin Town1.7

Denbigh Town1.8

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.1% · O3.5 PROB 38.8%

Form & verdict PPG

RUTHIN TOWN · PPG 0.98

DENBIGH TOWN · PPG 1.41

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.04 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ruthin Town (H) 36.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Denbigh Town (A) 39.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Ruthin Town face Denbigh Town in Wales - FAW Championship on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ruthin Town a 36% chance, the draw 25% and Denbigh Town 39%, so Denbigh Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Ruthin Town and 1.8 for Denbigh Town (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ruthin Town are averaging 0.98 points per game versus 1.41 for Denbigh Town.

Ruthin Town vs Denbigh Town Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

More Wales - FAW Championship Predictions